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The Autumn Carnival in Sydney heads to Rosehill for the next few weekends, starting this Saturday with Coolmore Classic Day. The $600,000 Group l, run over 1500m for the fillies mares, looks set to be dominated by star filly First Seal. The support card looks to be very strong, with a Doncaster start assured for the winner of the $175,000 Group ll Ajax Stakes (1500m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Form Guide

 

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Race One (12:20pm) : The Action’s Calling At TAB Handicap (80) 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Prepared to forgive former European Himalaya Dream (Best Odds: $5.00) for his last start failure at Warwick Farm when on speed and tiring late to run sixth to Happy Clapper, who is one of the more in form gallopers in Sydney at the moment. This isn’t an overly strong race, and I don’t see much early speed engaged, so I anticipate Tommy Berry will come out from the gates with purpose, come over, dictate, and hopefully prove too good, because his Australian debut at Sandown was excellent.
Big Danger: The clear interesting runner here is the Chris Waller trained Silverball (Best Odds: $3.30). Former Hong Kong galloper who probably reached his peak over there before being sent to Waller, who may further prolong this horses career. Two trials have caught the eye, and on his form in Hong Kong, at his best, he’d eat this field up and spit it out. If he’s forward enough to the eye in the mounting yard, back him. If not, watch and follow.
Roughie: Zin Zan Eddie (Best Odds: $5.50) has been excellent this time in, winning three back at Randwick and placing at his following two starts, including a third over this track/distance when narrowly missing Devonshire Duke in a thrilling finish. Meets that horse 2kg better off, so I’m confident he can turn the tables there, and that is probably the strongest form reference here. Only query is the jockey change. Blake Shinn knows him so well and now Koby Jennings takes the ride. That’s the concern.

 

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Race Two (1:00pm) : Smooth FM Maurice McCarten Stakes 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Despite giving weight to some pretty good horses, Deep Field (Best Odds: $1.40) should be winning here. He was far from disgraced in the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) behind Lankan Rupee, the worlds highest rated sprinter. He got the perfect sit off Deep Field and showed a lethal turn of foot to win. That was Deep Fields first crack at both Group l company and WFA and he ran well under the circumstances. Back to this level, home track, less depth…just wins doesn’t he?
Big Danger: Target In Sight (Best Odds: $6.00) had a really good Spring, highlighted by a win at Caulfield in the Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m). Recent trial on his home track at Warwick Farm was sharp and he’ll get a very hot speed in front of him here, which should give him every chance to run on. His first up record indicates that really is up his alley.
Roughie: I’m All The Talk (Best Odds: $11.00) gave them something to chase in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), and at the 250m mark, it looked as if he had stolen a winning break, but he got the staggers late. Back to Sydney, 0.5kg over the minimum and dropping in grade should see him take a power of beating.

 

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Race Three (1:35pm) : Pago Pago Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: I made Vanbrugh (Best Odds: $10.00) a ‘Trial Watch’ runner after running second to Furnaces. Vanbrugh them came out at Randwick at crazy odds of $15 and he showed a lovely turn of foot from the back to beat his rivals and beat them impressively. This isn’t a vintage Pago Pago, and with the Waller polish, as well as a glowing endorsement from Shinn post race, I am pretty confident this horse will go close.
Big Danger: Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $9.00) stuck on really well in the Skyline behind Exopshere, grinding away near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. That was his second run back from a break, and trainer Rod Northam has said that he has been set for only one race- the Golden Slipper, and given he probably needs to run 1-2 to get in the Slipper field, I’d expect him to be tuned right up for this, and we know the ability is there.
Roughie: Intrusion (Best Odds: $17.00) is on debut for Gerald Ryan. He wasn’t knocked about in his latest trial at Randwick when running second to Vancouver, beaten just over three lengths. That horse should win the Slipper, so it does read pretty well, and the trainer is one of the best at producing youngsters, so I’ll be be very cautious with this bloke and they do with him market wise.

 

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Race Four (2:10pm) : Magic Night Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Keen on Speak Fondly (Best Odds: $5.50) to turn the tables on Always Allison. Speak Fondly did all the work on speed in the Sweet Embrace (1200m) at Warwick Farm and was left a sitting shot for Always Allison, who had a cheap run on the rail and swooped late to win. I think there is a stack more upside with Speak Fondly and I think she won’t just turn the tables, she’ll win and secure a Slipper start.
Big Danger: Mowgli (Best Odds: $16.00) worked home strongly in the Sweet Embrace when fourth. she got a fair way back in the run and only got warm very late in the piece. she will definitely improve on the bigger track and is the filly with the upside in this race, so I am tipping her to go close.
Roughie: Carriages (Best Odds: $16.00) hasn’t raced since running a brave eighth in the Magic Millions to Le Chef after settling near a hot tempo. Recent trial was encouraging, she won’t be too far away from the gate and she does everything right, which is a definite advantage in these two year old races.

 

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Race Five (2:50pm) : EGroup Security Handicap (80) 1350m: Form Guide

Back Me: Very, very ordinary Saturday race, and on a feature race day. If I had to go with one, it’d be Cross Of Gold (Best Odds: $5.50), who savaged the line near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be, when a close up fourth to San Diego, beaten about half a length. He worked home okay prior to that at Sandown behind Swift Shadow, and Himalaya Dream ran second in that race, and he goes around earlier, so you’ll get some guide on the strength of that by the first race. This isn’t a strong race, he draws well, Reith sticks. He’ll do in a race I don’t have much confidence in.
Big Danger: Mahican (Best Odds: $2.90) was given an absolute peach by Meech (Ha, sorry for the rhyme. I do that all the time…) and looked the winner, but was only grabbed right on the line by San Diego. He is racing very well, but finding it hard to win. This does look his race on paper, but from a punting perspective, he is hard to trust, and may start short in betting.
Roughie: All Cerise (Best Odds: $8.00) was a real money muncher of mine in the Spring, continually teasing before turning it up at the end of the prep. Has been given a good spell, and the two trials leading up to this haven’t been too bad. She won’t be getting my money ever again, but this is the sort of race where she could win and win easily.

 

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Race Six (3:30pm) : McGrath Estate Sky High Stakes 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the first up run of Hartnell (Best Odds: $1.85) in the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), making up a stack of ground to just fail in picking up stablemate, and possibly the best WFA horse in Australia atm, Contributer. Up to 2000m, bigger track, fitter…he ticks all the boxes IMO and just looks the winner.
Big Danger: Who Shot Thebarman (Best Odds: $4.80) was also fantastic in the Chipping Norton, coming home strongly out wide to run fifth, beaten 1.5L. He hadn’t done much in Sydney prior to that, so the fact he ran so well on a track which probably doesn’t suit him indicates to me that he’ll go close here, and in whatever he contests this Autumn.
Roughie: You gotta love old Phrases (Best Odds: $34.00). There isn’t much of him, but gee he is one tough bugger, and the hot speed last weekend in the Randwick City Stakes (2000m) really suited him, and when it came to a fight, this bloke generally wins more than he loses. I’ll be surprised if he wins here, but he will run his usual honest race.

 

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Race Seven (4:10pm) : Coolmore Classic 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: It’s really hard seeing First Seal (Best Odds: $1.80) getting beat. That Surround Stakes (1400m) win of hers was just phenomenal, sitting out the back and wide, but just pounced on her rivals in two strides and won with ridiculous ease. Looks well enough in at the weights, so she does look the winner IMO. But please people. Go easy on the comparisons to Sunline. She is the third greatest mare this country has seen behind Black Caviar and Makybe Diva. First Seal has a long, long, long way to go before she can be mentioned in the same breath.
Big Danger: Expecting a cheeky run from the Queensland mare Tinto (Best Odds: $17.00) who really caught the eye behind Danesiri, storming home from near last to run sixth, beaten just over three lengths. Back slightly up in distance suits, fitter, and will definitely appreciate the bigger track.
Roughie: The lack of early speed engaged here gives Thump (Best Odds: $15.00) an outside chance at odds. She was super in winning the Triscay Stakes (1200m) first up at Randwick, then went to the Liverpool City Cup (1300m) and was far from disgraced when sixth to It’s Somewhat, beaten just over two lengths. Should get a very cheap lead, and with a dry Rosehill track, plus the rail in the true position, it will be no disadvantage to be on speed.

 

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Race Eight (4:50pm) : Cellarbrations Pharlap Stakes 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: The rise to 1500m, dodging First Seal and taking on some out of form males or males who need the run should suit Winx (Best Odds: $3.40). She really caught the eye first up in the Light Fingers (1200m) behind Adrift before going to the Surround Stakes (1400m) and just being no match for First Seal. This looks a nice race for her and I am happy to be in her corner.
Big Danger: Returning to Sydney could spark improvement from Hauraki, who had two runs in Melbourne to tune up for the Australian Guineas, and he simply didn’t handle racing anti clockwise. McDonald has been quite bullish about this horse and his prospects in this race, and the betting ($16-$9) suggests he’ll run much better than his recent outings.
Roughie: Expecting a cheeky run from Hampton Court (Best Odds: $9.00). His sectionals weren’t too bad in the Hobartville and he was very strong through the line. He took forever to find his best during the Spring, so that’s the query, but does represent great value, and he will be strong again late.

 

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Race Nine (5:30pm): APN Outdoor Ajax Stakes 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going to put Villiers Stakes (1600m) winner Rudy (Best Odds: $5.50) on top. His first up run in the Liverpool City Cup (1300m) was fantastic, coming from well back on the turn to be beaten just over a length by impressive Godolphin winner It’s Somewhat. The key to this horses chances is the weather. He can handle all tracks, but he grows an extra leg when there is give in the ground. Great chance to win if it’s dry. Nearly close to a special if the track is soft or worse.
Big Danger: Pornichet (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed also in the Liverpool City Cup also, and he was just fair I thought considering he did have a really good run just off the speed. trial prior to that was just fair, but we saw how good he was in the Spring, so I am prepared to give him another go in a slightly easier race on a bigger track.
Roughie: Destiny’s Kiss (Best Odds: $34.00) resumed with a closing fourth in the Southern Cross Stakes (1200m). He then went to the Liverpool City Cup and worked home strongly from last on the turn to finish seventh , beaten just over three lengths. Back to a bigger track and fitter should see him be right in the finish.

 

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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 First Seal

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Speak Fondly

VALUE: Race Five Number 6 Cross Of Gold

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 8

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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