It’s ‘Super Saturday’ at Flemington this weekend, with two serious Group l events to be run and won. Four of the best sprinters in the world, Lankan Rupee, Terravista, Chautauqua and Brazen Beau will clash in the $1 Million Lexus Newmarket Handicap (1200m) while a crack bunch of WFA gallopers will do battle in the Australian Cup (2000m). Track played beautifully last weekend, and I expect it to be much the same here.
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Race One (12:40pm) : TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pasadena Girl (Best Odds: $4.60) showed a lovely turn of foot to win the Talindert on debut at surprisingly good odds. Her trial leading up was okay and certainly better than a $61 chance. She was nominated for the Sires Produce but Peter Moody has elected to target the easier option, possibly to get more blacktype and ensure her future as a mum perhaps. Nonetheless, she looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Air Apparent (Best Odds: $4.20) tried her heart out in the Blue Diamond when sixth to Pride Of Dubai, getting a cheap run between runners before peeling out and working home well late. Big leap down in depth here, drawn to get a clear run…does look the winner apart from the query that the hard racing recently may take a toll on her.
Roughie: Pursuits (Best Odds: $4.20) was made a ‘Trial Watch’ runner from the Cranbourne trials last Monday where she showed a lovely turn of foot to beat her rivals, and really beat them comfortably in the end. Did run third to Fontiton on debut at Sandown, so that’s pretty fair form for a race like this, and Godolphin International rider James Doyle rides.
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Race Two (1:15pm) : MSS Security Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really hot race for the three year olds. In saying that, I’m really keen on Nostradamus (Best Odds: $6.50). His jump out win here was very sharp, so it was no surprise to see him high up in markets for his return to racing in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), and he ran quite well there, running eighth, beaten 4.5L by Shamal Wind. Back to his home track, drawn the right part of the track, D Dunn rides…just looks the winner. Taking on Earthquake because her first up run, also in the Oakleigh Plate, was terrible, plus she has to carry 60.5kg.
Big Danger: Zeletto (Best Odds: $7.50) deserves a crack at this level after a dominant first up win over 1000m at the Valley, controlling the race from the front and finding plenty when asked. Drawn near a speedy customer in Royal Snitzel, and these two met in the Winter, with Royal Snitzel winning narrowly. Zeletto meets her 3kg better off and will be more strong at the end of 1100m, so he is a definite chance.
Roughie: The ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira has been doing some amazing things at Hong Kong recently, and his first ride this Saturday comes here in Pittsburgh Flyer (Best Odds: $13.00), who ran third to Zeletto at the Valley, and she loomed to win, but her fitness just gave way late. Anything Moreira rides improves a length or two, so she has to go in.
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Race Three (1:55pm) : Sires’ Produce Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I put Sampeah (Best Odds: $4.60) in the ‘Forget’ file in regards to running in Melbourne. I should have said just Caulfield, because he simply was horrendous around the corners in both the Blue Diamond Prelude and the Blue Diamond itself, and actually under the circumstances, he was pretty good. I think the big key is getting to a track like Flemington which has more room, and if you make a slight mistake, the damage isn’t as significant if it happened at Caulfield. This looks his race and I am keen on him.
Big Danger: I wasn’t sure what to make of Jameka (Best Odds: $4.40) and her effort in the Talindert Stakes (1100m). One look she was unlucky. Another look and it seemed she had her chance. But looking at the replay one more time, I think she was a bit unlucky given she got checked in the straight and lost momentum, and given she is a big filly, she doesn’t look the type that can stop/start, which is why the rise to 1400m looks perfect, and she has dodged the harder races.
Roughie: Queen Of Wands (Best Odds: $7.00) ran a credible sixth to Fontiton in the Blue Diamond Prelude before going to Sandwon over 1300m and let down very powerfully to win and win with a fair bit of ease. She draws gate one and will have no issues at all running 1400m, plus fillies have a decent record in this race in recent times.
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Race Four (2:30pm) : Incognitus Blamey Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: I think there is great value here in Guest Of Honour (Best Odds: $9.00). I didn’t mind his jump out win here, and I didn’t mind the way he ran in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) when fifth to Suavito. He got held up between the 350m-250m, and that probably cost him a margin to some extent, but not a placing. He will be better suited at Flemington, Dunn takes over, drawn well, up to 1600m suits and he was a Stakes winner second up two preps back.
Big Danger: Suavito (Best Odds: $2.40) was given a peach ride by Ollie to win the Futurity, getting on the back of Smokin’ Joey in the three wide line and having the last shot at that runner. Suavito also lost a plate in the run, so that adds merit to her win. Trained here, flies second up, as well as at the track, and this race carries less depth than the Futurity.
Roughie: Nothing really went right for Sertorius (Best Odds: $13.00) during the Spring, and it was summed up in the Geelong Cup (2400m) where he did a power of work in the run and folded up late. We know how good he is, and he did run a great race in this event 12 months ago. If he is forward enough, he can be a danger.
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Race Five (3:10pm) : TAB Kewney Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Slick bunch of fillies here. In saying that, I think there is a great each-way bet here in Sea Spray (Best Odds: $12.00). She was backed at odds to win the Typhoon Tracy Stakes (1200m) at the Valley, and she was just completely luckless, with the combination of a negative ride. Finished second last, beaten five lengths, but she nearly should have fought the finish out. Jump Out win at Sandown prior to that was very sharp, and hopefully on a bigger track she can get better luck and be in the finish.
Big Danger: Sabatini (Best Odds: $3.20) just continues to get better and better as the bar gets raised higher and higher. In saying that, a couple of pearlers from Nick Hall have helped, especially last time out in the Angus Armanasco (1400m) when sitting off the speed, peeling on the turn and letting down powerfully to win comfortably. Should get back with cover and get the drag into the straight, which is her perfect situation.
Roughie: There was plenty of merit in the performance of Bottle Of Smoke (Best Odds: $10.00) in the Angus Armanasco. Despite being trained on the track, she looked completely lost around it, which probably cost her victory. She was very good over the last 100m, so the bigger track looks ideal for her, and Craig Newitt rides, and he has been in fabulous form in Singapore.
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Race Six (3:50pm) : Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: It’ll be a shock if either Chautauqua (Best Odds: $3.00), Lankan Rupee or Terravista don’t greet the judge first, and that’s the order I am going with. Don’t worry about the small margin that Chautauqua had in reserve when winning the Rubiton Stakes (1100m) first up. He just got too far back and was caught in a nasty spot, but the genius of D Dunn got him home. He is near unbeatable down the straight, and it took a Bowman gem on Terravista to bring about his demise last year in the Darley Classic (1200m). He gets the weight pull on Terravista now, and has the fitness edge, plus a sharp jump out win last week.
Big Danger: I wasn’t sold as to whether Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $3.30) was back, but I was a believer after the stunning turn of foot he showed to win the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m). I will say that he was on the back of a horse who was having his first go at Group l level and at WFA. Different kettle of fish here with him giving weight to class animals, so he will need to be every bit as good as he is, but it will be no shock if he blows them away.
Roughie: Terravista (Best Odds: $6.00) has been just so so at the trials IMO, in particular the first one behind I’m All The Talk. The second trial was better, but he was ridden out to win the trial. In terms of the big three here, I’d say he has come back the least impressive, but he has the runs on the board from the Spring, the weight pull on Lankan Rupee and is unbeaten in four runs fresh.
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Race Seven (4:30pm): Australian Cup 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: It’s been a few years since we have seen a horse as consistent at the Flemington 2000m like Happy Trails (Best Odds: $4.40). No matter what the race, what gate or what odds, he just loves it. Turnbull Stakes and Mackinnon Stakes winner over the track/distance in recent times, and his last start effort in the Peter Young Stakes (1800m) was a beautiful tune up for this. Clearly looks the horse to beat.
Big Danger: It might not be the Melbourne Cup, but gee it’d be great to see Red Cadeaux (Best Odds: $14.00) get a big win at Flemington. He is being aimed towards the Championships, so I am sure whatever he does here he will improve on, but come race day at Flemington, he always just finds his best. He will get back, but he will be storming home late.
Roughie: The ‘Lion Of Longford’, The Cleaner (Best Odds: $18.00), went at his usual strong tempo in front first up on Launceston Cup Day in the George Adams Stakes (1600m) but couldn’t quite hold off crack local three year old Admiral, who ran a beauty last week in the Guineas, so don’t worry about it being Tassie form. This horse will roll along in front, go for home 700m out and look to break their hearts. Can he hold on to win? Not sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
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Race Eight (5:10pm) : Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really good fillies and mares race. I think Bonaria (Best Odds: $7.50) will go back to back in this race. Her two runs back from a spell have been very good, both times behind Tycoon Tara, first up in the Bellmaine Stakes (1200m) before not having much luck when fifth in the Premier Signs Stakes (1400m). She is a Group l winner of this track/distance three starts back, draws well, D Dunn sticks, and considering her record, she gets in pretty well at the weights IMO.
Big Danger: Set Square (Best Odds: $6.50) was fantastic in The Vanity (1400m), making up good ground from the back to only be pipped late by the horse who had the drag behind her, Sweet And Speedy. She should improve big time from that outing and most importantly, Hugh Bowman gets back aboard. She has upside and class, which is something most of these mares don’t have.
Roughie: Returning to Melbourne could spark improvement in Marianne (Best Odds: $11.00), who hasn’t done a great deal in three runs for Team Snowden, though she did work home okay late in the Guy Walter Stakes (1400m) behind Danesiri, and that is the best form reference for mares in Sydney at the moment. Draws well, ran well on this day last year…could be ready to show her old form.
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Race Nine (5:50pm) : My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: If Natuzzi (Best Odds: $3.70) has handled the flight over from New Zealand, he’ll be winning this race and winning it well. Group l performer across the Tasman who went within a lip of getting his maiden major last time out at Otaki, but just didn’t quite run the 1600m out when beaten by Iamishwara. Before that he ran second in the Group l NRM Sprint (1400m) to Sacred Star, the best sprinter in New Zealand by a fair margin. Comes here fresh from a trip, and he does race well fresh, plus he just looks so well in at the weights, as well as regular rider Chris Johnson forging a probable full book of rides at Trentham to ride this bloke.
Big Danger: What you see is what you get with Gracious Prospect (Best Odds: $7.00). He just tries his heart out, like he did last Saturday over this track/distance when third to Amorino. He meets that horse 1.5kg better off at the weights, and he will get the perfect run either leading or sitting off non winner Laohu.
Roughie: Leading didn’t suit Whistle Baby (Best Odds: $21.00) last week in the Tressady Stakes (1400m) and she folded up early on in the straight. She had been running well prior to that when ridden with cover. If that eventuates, she can bounce back and be a definite contender here. I am leaving Stipulate out, because I thought his recent jump out here was ordinary, and one which suggests he’ll need the run here.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Natuzzi
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VALUE: Race Five Number 5 Sea Spray
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
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Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg Four: 1
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