Automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup is on the line for 12 starters when they contest the $350,000 Listed Sportingbet Mornington Cup (2400m). Prince Of Penzance, trained by the man of the moment Darren Weir, holds favourtism.
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Race One (12:00) : Musk Creek Farm Maiden Plate 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: If Son Senoras (Best Odds: $1.50) runs up to her barrier trial, they won’t get near her here. That was at Cranbourne where she just jumped, ran along and never stopped, winning by 12 lengths and running one of the fastest times of the morning, which included the likes of Earthquake, Lion Of Belfort and Lankan Roupee. She has been given plenty of time to mature, and it looks as if it will pay dividends.
Big Danger: Golfing (Best Odds: $9.00) trialled well behind Lord Of The Sky before his first up failure at Kilmore, where he didn’t look comfortable on that tough circuit. Drawn badly, but he can certainly improve.
Roughie: Smart Option (Best Odds: $8.50) has placed twice from as many career outings. Got to say I thought he had his chance last time out at Werribee, but he is one of the better horses in this race on race day form, so he goes in as a chance.
$250 Son Senoras Free Bet
Race Two (12:30) : Three Pillars Martha Cove Handicap (70) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Riviera Red (Best Odds: $2.50) was first up since August 2012 when storming home from near last to grab second to Kaiser Sun at Flemington. At the time, that form line was very strong. The only concern here is the fact she is second up after a long break. If she holds her form, she’ll just about take care of these.
Big Danger: Chelembra (Best Odds: $7.50) was off the bit pretty much the entire trip when resuming at the Valley, but stuck on quite solidly behind Beauty Cash for fourth and was actually pulling ground late. He won’t be too far away from the rails draw, and is a definite chance.
Roughie: Navorina (Best Odds: $8.50) closed off well at the Valley recently in a 955m series heat when third to Stakes winner Minaj. Massive drop in class here, but the wide draw will make things tricky. Advantage for here though is that she is trained on the track and knows her way around the tricky circuit.
$250 Riviera Red Free Bet
Race Three (13:00) : Land Engineering Handicap (70) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Justthewayyouare (Best Odds: $15.00), the former European stayer who has had a few runs now under the care of Mick Price. I thought he was very brave last time out at Yarra Valley after setting a strong speed, finishing third to Grand Slam Eagle and Goddera. The winner was going to be favourite for a much harder race at Caulfield but was scratched while Goddera won a race on Friday night at the Valley, so the form stacks up well. Should roll forward, and at this track, that’ll be a huge advantage.
Big Danger: St Issey (Best Odds: $4.60) ran a strong race for third at the Valley to First Bloom, then dropped back to the provincials and took care of an average bunch at Sale in impressive fashion. Back up to 2000m looks ideal, as does the inside gate, and she got a timely confidence booster from Sale.
Roughie: Bessano (Best Odds: $5.50) kicked very hard at Seymour when challenged several times in the straight under the urgings of Michael Walker, who sticks. Go back through his form and he did run third in the St Leger, so the quality is there. He is right in the mix here.
$250 Justthewayyouare Free Bet
Race Four (13:35) : Orbit Fitness Handicap (64) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Shades Of Bella (Best Odds: $2.80) was a highly impressive debut winner at Yarra Valley, beating a handy maiden field and running really good time, which compared well to the older horses later on in the program. That is the yardstick as to whether or not they have the talent and quality, and I think this girl does hence the quick rise to city company. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Written (Best Odds: $3.50) led them a merry dance in breaking her maiden status over this track/distance a couple of weeks back. Tougher here, but with similar tactics adopted here, she can certainly make her presence felt here.
Roughie: Steel Broom (Best Odds: $34.00) was very stiff when racing here three back, getting held up badly on the turn and never getting clear until the race was done and dusted. In two subsequent runs, he has been good without being great. The key here is coming back in distance and getting the blinkers on for the first time. That may spark the improvement required to greet the judge.
$250 Shades Of Bella Free Bet
Race Five (14:10) : Nepean Waste Handicap (70) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Really good race for the three year olds here. Was really taken by the first up win of Smart Al (Best Odds: $19.00) over this track/distance a few weeks back, sitting outside the speed and charging clear late without being fully pressured. I like him alot heading forward and I wouldn’t put this beyond him, so at value, I’ll go with him.
Big Danger: Churchill Dancer (Best Odds: $6.00) was most unlucky at Caulfield behind Trust In A Gust, getting held up while the winner built up all the momentum. He got clear and really savaged the line late to go down by a half length. He has always contested the better class races and hasn’t been disgraced. Gets in very well here at the weights after the claim, and from a good draw, I expect him to go very close.
Roughie: Consorting (Best Odds: $4.40) resumes here after a reasonably successful Spring, which culminated with an unlucky third in a Stakes race on the final day of Cup Week behind Dothraki. First up last time he was most impressive over this track/distance, beating home Turquoise King, who came out and bolted in last week. He’ll get back, but if they go hard, he’ll run on as well as anything.
$250 Smart Al Free Bet
Race Six (14:45) : Inglis Premier 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Modoc (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the good thing on the card for mine. Brilliant first up win at Newcastle, running slick time, then took care of an average lot at Scone by nearly seven lengths under a hold. Paul Perry knows when to send his horses to Melbourne and he rarely comes away without the bikkies. Should bounce on the bunny, sit in the first couple, and with Nash on board…doesn’t look like getting beat.
Big Danger: Grand Rosso (Best Odds: $3.80) ran a good race on debut in the Blue Diamond Preview behind Mohave, racing quite greenly in the straight but still finding the line okay. He will have come on from that outing and Olly has been booked, which is a positive lead for mine.
Roughie: Interested to see how Say My Name (Best Odds: $51.00) runs here. Outclassed down the Flemington straight on debut behind Risen From Doubt, then ran fourth to Eloping before an eye catching fifth at Werribee. He does have pretty good form around him, and he will be strong at the end of 1200m. Might be worth a sneaky flutter each way.
$250 Modoc Free Bet
Race Seven (15:20) : Mitavite Challenge Final (78) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Good race to kick off the quaddie. Leaning towards Street Savvy (Best Odds: $6.50). Put together two impressive wins in New South Wales, the latter at Randwick, then ran over the 1800m at Caulfield and was a touch unlucky behind Try Pickle, weaving his way through the field late and savaging the line. That tough 1800m will tune him right up for this here, and from the good barrier, he’ll be hard to beat. It also might be, but I could be mistaken, the first time that Bossy has been on a Bart Cummings horse since his ride on So You Think in the 2009 Emirates Stakes.
Big Danger: Little Bro (Best Odds: $3.60) spanked his rivals two back at Morphettville, then was very stiff not to win at the Valley last start behind Praesentia, getting badly held up on the fence and only getting clear a couple of strides from home. Nash jumps on and should either lead or get the beaut sit off our roughie and prove hard to run down.
Roughie: Charles In Charge (Best Odds: $5.50) has got his mind on racing now and looks a different horse. Was given a peach ride by Matty Neilson to win at Morphettville, then led them up here and proved too good late. He’ll go forward from the draw and be difficult to get past again.
$250 Street Savvy Free Bet
Race Eight (16:00) : Hareeba Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I can only see two winning hopes here, Richie’s Vibe or Knoydart (Best Odds: $4.40). Leaning towards the latter, because he was just so impressive in the Canterbury Classic, showing a dazzling turn of foot when getting the split. He has the natural brilliance to win a very good race and Nash again gets a leading chance.
Big Danger: Richie’s Vibe (Best Odds: $5.00) was given an Olly special to nail Moment Of Change in the Australia Stakes, lunging late and grabbing victory right on the peg. That horse came out and won the C.F. Orr last Saturday, so the form is excellent, plus he has the race fitness and the better draw. Looks the only threat.
Roughie: Borsay (Best Odds: $19.00) has only raced once here, back in September 2012, and bolted in, leading all the way. He did that first up at Caulfield and was quite impressive, with Sam Pritchard-Gordon finally getting this horse injury free. He’ll ping over from the wide draw and give a great sight for his supporters.
$250 Knoydart Free Bet
Race Nine (16:40) : Mornington Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to make He’s Your Man (Best Odds: $9.00) the best bet on the card. I am a bit surprised to see the price on offer for him, because I thought he’d be shorter. His three runs since coming from Europe have been super, all over unsuitable distances. He finally gets to 2400m, and look at his last 2400m run- a narrow second to Lost In The Moment, a high class stayer. I think he is an outstanding bet.
Big Danger: Prince Of Penzance (Best Odds: $3.40) had the charmed run back in the field off a hot tempo at Caulfield and got the splits on the home turn and eventually charged to the lead and was strong through the line. Classy animal who deserves the favourite tag, but he’ll have to work much harder for victory here.
Roughie: Laidback Larry (Best Odds: $5.50) was far from disgraced in that race Prince Of Penzance won, doing a stack of work in the run, in particular up the hill, which is suicidal at Caulfield eg Pierro in the Guineas. He’ll get a much softer trip now, and with the upside fitness wise, and on the minimum, he is a definite threat.
$250 He’s Your Man Free Bet
Race Ten (17:20) : Fibretrack Handicap (70) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The Bowler (Best Odds: $3.50) for me to finish off the day. His two runs back from a break have been super. The saddle slipped on Jye McNeil first up at the Valley yet still managed to get beat just under three lengths, then ran in the Magic Millions Guineas and was very gallant in fifth, behind a star filly in Sweet Idea. Coming back to this level looks perfect, and if he can lead, he’ll take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Songspur (Best Odds: $6.50) kicked hard in front at Cranbourne when challenged by his rivals last time out, and clung on to a good win. That run should top him off perfectly for this, drawn well and Rodd sticks. Hard to beat.
Roughie: The Travelling Man (Best Odds: $17.00) was a top winner here four back, and has been good in three subsequent runs, including last start at Kyneton when running on well after peeling very wide on the home turn. Trained on the track and is below the minimum after the claim.
$250 Bowler Free Bet
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Best Bet: He’s Your Man (Best Odds: $9.00)
Next Best: Modoc (Best Odds: $2.70)
Best Roughie: Smart Al (Best Odds: $19.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Leg Two: 1, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10
Leg Four: 3, 5, 8
$50 Investment = 33.33% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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