The Grand Finals of Australian racing, The Championships, conclude this Saturday at Randwick with the best race of the entire Sydney Autumn Carnival- the $4 Million Group l Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m), where Criterion and To The World are jostling for favourtism. There are three other majors on the card, most notably the revamped Sydney Cup (3200m), which is now a class race itself thanks to the prize money bump up to $1.6 Million. Hartnell dominates betting there.
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Race One (11:30am) : Adina Hotels Fernhill Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty ordinary edition of the Fernhill. Clash Of Clans (Best Odds: $3.70) absolutely crawled them in front last time out at Newcastle yet looked in big trouble 250m out, but he kicked very hard late and proved too good. This race really doesn’t look much harder despite it being a rise from maiden company, and adding the Moreira/Waterhouse factor, he has to be a serious chance.
Big Danger: Muzyka (Best Odds: $4.60) made up significant ground and then got badly checked near the line when making her debut in a Gosford maiden last week. Big leap in class and distance for a young horse, but she’s in the right stable and she strikes a very thin race.
Roughie: Celtic Diamond (Best Odds: $51.00) made her debut in a Gosford maiden and she was quite good there when running fifth, beaten just over five lengths in a race dominated on speed. She looks to have plenty of upside left, bred to handle the going and should relish the rise to 1600m in a pretty thin race.
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Race Two (12:10pm) : McGrath Estate Agents South Pacific Classic 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m a big fan of Sadler’s Lake (Best Odds: $6.00), so I’ll put him on top. He really caught the eye in all three career runs during the Summer, winning his last two, including a win over the mile here. Loved his Rosehill trial last week, and despite his grand final being the Queensland Derby, he looks talented enough to beat these fresh.
Big Danger: Ygritte (Best Odds: $3.40) produced a big effort to win the Gosford Guineas last week considering she was four wide no cover on speed on a tight turning track. She had every right to turn it up on the turn, but she sprinted hard at the 200m mark and held on for a big win. Races well here, and is in form. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Redoutable Heart (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed at Warwick Farm and worked to the line well when third to Confederate, beaten 0.7L. Trials before that were good, he handles the wet and a senior rider takes over.
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Race Three (12:45pm) : Provincial Championship Final 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Slots (Best Odds: $15.00) on top. She ran a beauty first up in the Wenona Girl at huge odds when running third to Griante before stepping out in the Newcastle heat of this series, and on the turn she cruised up and looked as though she was going to go straight past them, but she just died on her run late. My guess is that her condition just gave way, so I’m banking on that and the fact she’ll be tuned right up for this. Handles Randwick, handles wet ground, Angland sticks…hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Selectify (Best Odds: $13.00) strung together a couple of wins in the city before being spelled. He resumed with a strong second to Darciwood over 1200m here before going to the Wyong heat of this series and running second to the impressive Sure And Fast. His wins have come when ridden off speed, so I think that’s what Bowman will do here given there is plenty of speed outside him. Trial win since was very sharp, and the stable has absolutely dominated this series.
Roughie: Handy filly Unequivocal (Best Odds: $34.00) had been really struggling for form, and was pretty ordinary in that Sure And Fast heat win, but she went to another heat, on her home track at Hawkesbury, and she improved out of side with a closing third to Harmonic. Gets on the minimum weight now, can race very well here, she has now found some form finally and is bred to swim.
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Race Four (1:20pm) : Girvan Waugh Percy Sykes Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really hot race for the female babies. Leaning towards Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $2.80). She has been enormous in all three runs to date without winning. She got stuck wide no cover in the Widden Stakes (1100m) on debut when second to Fireworks, then went to the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) and ran a cracker when third to Pride Of Dubai before going to the Slipper and working home strongly to run third to Vancouver. Handles the wet and Ryan Moore booked. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Serenade (Best Odds: $5.00) worked home well in the Slipper when seventh to Vancouver after getting a long way back in the run. It’s hard to believe that I was keen on her on debut in a Gosford maiden and she got beat 12 lengths, and now she’s here, and a serious a chance, in a $500,000 race. Gate one, Williams sticks…only query is the wet ground.
Roughie: Mine Two (Best Odds: $12.00) has caught the eye in two runs back from a spell, starting off in the Reisling Stakes (1200m) when coming home from near last to run fourth to English before going to the The Schweppervescence (1400m) on Slipper and again working home well to run fourth to Takedown. Back to 1200m on a heavy track should suit, and she is bred to handle the conditions.
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Race Five (1:55pm) : Arrowfield Sprint 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for a horse on speed and that can handle the wet, and that criteria is fitted by Mossfun (Best Odds: $6.00). After two flat runs, the jury was well and truly out on her, but she somewhat bounced back to some sort of form with a second to Shamala on Slipper. I say somewhat because she get an absolute picnic in front that day and was run down from a horse who sat last, but she gets a much needed wet track, drops back to her own age, and has the weight pull.
Big Danger: Kuro (Best Odds: $2.50) fought on very strongly last time out at Group l level when running second to Sweet Idea in the Galaxy (1100m), sitting on speed and hitting the front before being run down late. Tuned up after that a few days later with a strong trial win here. He has a good wet track record on paper, but I wouldn’t say he is a swimmer. Those two wins were against camels, so be mindful of that, but on class, he is a definite threat.
Roughie: Big watch on the first up run of Rekindled Power (Best Odds: $17.00) for Paul Messara and Arrowfield, sponsors of this race. He showed really good promise during the Spring, most notably in a maiden on Bendigo Cup Day before running midfield in the Sandown Guineas. Loved his trial here back in late February, and from all reports, he won like a star in a trial on his home track at Scone a couple of weeks back. Given Arrowfield sponsor this race, I’m tipping this bloke will be close to being wound up, and on ability and natural talent, he is a contender.
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Race Six (2:35pm) : Seven News Australian Oaks 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen on Thunder Lady (Best Odds: $5.00). Needed the run first up in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) behind Hallowed Crown, then loomed to win the Keith Nolan Classic (1600m) but she just died on her run before going to the major lead up to this, the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m), and really caught the eye with her third to Fenway. I said after the race in my review that she looked to have some condition left prior to the Vinery, so she’ll definitely peak for this, 2400m suits, home track…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: Winx (Best Odds: $3.40) was the unlucky runner in the Vinery, making up enormous ground to run fifth to Fenway after settling near last in the run and getting held up a couple of times in the straight. I have a big query on her running 2400m, but she has the class/brilliance factor, absolute swimmer and a mug called Joao Moreira steers. She’ll be very hard to beat.
Roughie: Gust Of Wind (Best Odds: $15.00) really worked home strongly on Monday in the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m), making up a stack of ground to run fourth to Candelara. Her two wins prior were outstanding, and interesting to note that Tye Angland rides this filly and not Thunder Lady. Could be owner influence there, I’m not 100% sure, but on face value, the jockey switch is a good lead and no way is she a $17 chance. She should be half that.
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Race Seven (3:15pm) : Cellarbrations Queen Of The Turf Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a hot race. I’m very keen to lay Noble Protector (Best Odds: $3.50) here. I remember Smerdon saying in the Spring that this mare hates two things-very hot days and very wet tracks, so I’ll put the pen through her, and go with the darling of Sydney racing, Catkins. There was plenty to like about her Emancipation Stakes (1600m) triumph where she sat on speed, on a firm track which isn’t her cup of tea, but she just ambled to the front and put them away quickly. I am really surprised around $5 being offered for her, because despite not winning a major, she is a proven Group l performer, so $5 compared to $3.50 for Noble Protector, who has beat nothing in two runs this time in…I know what corner I want to be in.
Big Danger: First Seal (Best Odds: $3.30) comes back to the mile after contesting the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m), where she looked home with 200m to go, but she just got outstayed by Fenway in a thrilling go. 2000m isn’t her go, and I am not sure a mile on a heavy track is either, but she gets the weight pull thanks to WFA, she is rock hard fit, McDonald sticks and she has a great record at Randwick, as well as sheer brilliance.
Roughie: Looking for one at huge odds to spice up exotics and I think Hera (Best Odds: $126.00) is one that can run a cheeky race. Had she received a clear path in the straight in the Coolmore Classic (1500m), I think she probably wins the race. She then ran in the Emancipation and the firm track and slow pace didn’t suit. She’ll get a solid tempo here, she is an absolute swimmer, stable is flying…no way is she a $126 chance.
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Race Eight (3:55pm) : Schweppes Sydney Cup 3200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hartnell (Best Odds: $1.95) looks the good thing of the afternoon. His BMW (2400m) triumph was that similar to what Makyve Diva produced in 2005, or even Octagonal several years prior. The effort and turn of foot was just freakish. That was WFA. He now gets down to the minimum weight despite being a last start Group l winner, he loves the wet…he is around $1.90…he should be $1.50. Everything goes right, he spanks these.
Big Danger: For the first time since the first Tuesday in November, we get to see Protectionist (Best Odds: $5.00) over the two miles. Quite simply, the 1800m, 2000m and 2400m races he has contested this Autumn are just too short. He needs distance, and he finally gets it here, as well as a wet track, which he lapped up when trained overseas. The negative is that he meets Hartnell 4.5kg worse for that horse beating him by over two lengths. Won’t turn the tables, but should run well.
Roughie: Forget Grand Marshal (Best Odds: $41.00) went around on Monday in the Chairman’s Handicap (2600m). It was a rare howler of a day for Moreira, who continually steered poor races, and this was one of them, giving him zero hope from a good draw and attempting to make ground on the quicksand, near the fence. He is an out and out stayer, and although terribly weighted, he is in form and has the Waller polish.
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Race Nine (4:35pm) : Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll tip a horse who is proven on the world stage, at the 2000m and on a wet track-Criterion (Best Odds: $3.50). He has gone to a new level since joining the Hayes/Dabernig team. He ran the race of his life in the Hong Kong International Cup (2000m) when third to one of the worlds best in Designs On Rome before being spelled. He resumed with a cracking third to Cosmic Endeavour in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) before just failing to pick up Real Impact in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), who franked the form with an unbelievable second in the Doncaster. What sways me towards Criterion was his trial effort last week. Gee he looked outstanding there, and is absolutely spot on for this.
Big Danger: I think Spillway (Best Odds: $17.00) is a great winning chance here at odds IMO. He bolted up to them in the Australian Cup (2000m) last time out, and perhaps his sharp turn of foot meant that he hit the front too soon, and was nearly grabbed on the line by stablemate Extra Zero, but he kicked on hard to win. Form out of that race has been terrible, so that’s the query, but I loved his trial here last week, he’s proven on wet ground, and as I said, he has an electric turn of foot when asked, and Michael Walker retains the ride.
Roughie: With the wet track, Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $14.00) comes right into contention at silly odds. Her form this prep has been good without winning, and she worked home well in the BMW behind Hartnell. Bowman on board, bigger track, wet surface, 2000m…looks perfect for her, and she is a definite winning chance.
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Race Ten (5:15pm) : Drummond Golf Sapphire Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Giving Avoid Lightning (Best Odds: $4.40) another go here. Forget she went around last time out in the Galaxy (1100m) given she bungled the start and was therefore out of her comfort zone. Has since been back to the trials, here, and went fantastic, winning most impressively. Ran second to Cosmic Endeavour in this race last year, but I am confident she can go one better.
Big Danger: It was hard not to be impressed by the win of Shamalia (Best Odds: $5.00) first up in the Birthday Card where she sat last in a slowly run race, peeled to the outside and let down powerfully to overhaul Mossfun. Her form is mixed on wet tracks, but she has a touch of class and brilliance about her, and she strikes a winnable race second up.
Roughie: One to include at odds could be Fine Bubbles (Best Odds: $41.00). Liked her first up run in the Wenona Girl behind Griante before going to the Birthday Card and she wasn’t suited by the slow tempo Mossfun set, but she did work home strongly late to run fifth, beaten three lengths. Purton on, loves sting out of the track, and should be near ready to peak here as she heads towards something like the Darley Crown at Hawkesbury.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Hartnell
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Thunder Lady
VALUE: Race Two Number 6 Sadler's Lake
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14
Leg Two: 6
Leg Three: 2, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
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