A strong nine race card has been set down for Flemington this Saturday, highlighted by the $150,000 Listed Galilee Series Final (2500m), the ideal launching pad for horses heading towards the South Australian Derby (2500m) and the VRC St Leger (2800m) on Anzac Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:25pm) : Starlight Children’s Foundation Trophy 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with the Peter Moody first starter here in Badcoe (Best Odds: $4.80). I’ve liked what I have seen from this son of Wanted at the jump outs and trials. Draws well, has gate speed, senior rider up, he’ll do me in the opener.
Big Danger: Miss Cooper (Best Odds: $11.00) made her debut in a Kyneton maiden a couple of weeks back and stuck to the task very well when running fourth after she was stuck three wide no cover on speed. Back on her home track, drawn to follow the top tip and she has race experience on her side.
Roughie: Stablemate of Miss Cooper, Jungle Rock (Best Odds: $26.00), ran fifth in that Kyneton, and she sat back and worked home well late despite not having 100% clear air. She gets the weight pull after the claim for Mick Dee and she probably has more scope, so I’d watch market moves with the Ellerton/Zahra pair.
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Race Two (1:00pm) : Denis Walters Afternoon Trophy 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Sticking fat with Sea Spray (Best Odds: $4.40). Should have won last week at Caulfield, but a combination of a bad start and a negative ride cost her dearly. Clearly is the best horse in the race, and she finally gets a decent barrier in a suitable race. Really keen on her again.
Big Danger: Bahamas (Best Odds: $9.00) comes back in grade after racing at Stakes level last time out, running second to Fontein Ruby in the Alexandra Stakes (1600m) under the Moonee Valley lights. Beautifully weighted despite the class drop, and although drawn terribly, she has scope and is one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: Hennessy Rock (Best Odds: $21.00) could be one to include at odds. She ran behind Sea Spray last week at Caulfield and wasn’t far off her, with that filly running third and Hennessy Rock running fifth. Meets Sea Spray 1kg better for a 0.6L margin, plus Hennessy Rock draws better this week compared to last weekend.
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Race Three (1:35pm) : Union Road Community Hub Trophy 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Strong sprint race for the three year olds. Going with the one down the bottom, Usain Dane (Best Odds: $16.00). One start for one win, back in November last year when winning a maiden at Moe. Form out of that has been okay, but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen at the jump outs from this colt. Looks ready to go first up.
Big Danger: Jabali (Best Odds: $5.50) is a money muncher, and isn’t one of my horses, but he has class and loads of talent, but he is just a complete nutter in the head. He has started $1.12 and $1.75 in his two runs back from a spell, both in maidens, and both times he has been rolled, so as a punter, he is a nightmare, but the horse himself, he’ll take beating here if he puts it all together.
Roughie: Veuvelicious (Best Odds: $23.00) showed great promise this time last year, winning the Fernhill before running midfield in the Champagne behind Go Indy Go. She was very ordinary in the Spring, but a couple of trials leading up to her return here have been impressive, and she is a Stakes winner, so if she is anywhere near right, she is a definite threat.
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Race Four (2:15pm) : Tom Elliott Drive Trophy 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to give Fast Cash (Best Odds: $5.00) another go here. I am prepared to forgive him for his tenth in the Bendigo Guineas because he just got too far back in a slowly run race, and was out so wide on the turn, he could have been on the track at Ascot in Perth. Tricky draw here, but he is a classy animal and D Dunn booked is a good lead.
Big Danger: Take nothing away from the winner of the Bendigo Guineas, Setinum (Best Odds: $4.60). He was three wide on speed no cover for the entire yet still attacked the line best to win. Weight rise is a worry, but he gets a soft gate and Jake Noonan stays aboard. Hard to beat despite the big weight rise.
Roughie: Berlutti (Best Odds: $6.50) has been a touch disappointing this time in, despite running very consistently; He just can’t greet the judge first. Runner up at his past three outings, so he is racing well, but just can’t crack it for a win. Maybe he can here with the rise to 1400m, bigger track and the weight drop thanks to the Mick Dee claim.
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Race Five (2:55pm) : 3AW Community Raceday Handicap 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to go with the speedy Fab Fevola (Best Odds: $9.50) in what looks a pretty thin sprint race. Two starts ago he was five lengths off Lankan Rupee in the Lightning, then ran at the Valley and copped serious heat in front, and usually he turns it up, but he fought hard and eventually ran fifth, just two lengths off multiple Group l winner Platelet. Michelle Payne will steer this horse towards the outside fence, on his own, bowl along and run an almighty race at odds against a likely odds on pop who is first up, Melbourne debut and has to carry 60kg.
Big Danger: That likely odds on pop will be the younger sibling of Tiger Tees and Terravista, Ball Of Muscle (Best Odds: $2.30). He was outstanding during the Summer, winning three from four including a Listed Takeover Target Stakes (1200m). Trial leading up to this was very impressive when winning, he flies fresh…just the weight and first time Melbourne conditions are the concerns.
Roughie: Hard Romp (Best Odds: $11.00) resumes here for Ciaron Maher after a pretty solid Winter, which saw him win a couple and place in the city on two occasions. Jump out was strong, and his Geelong trial was excellent, so given he is on the limit, and he is a good first up performer, he could be the knockout horse at odds.
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Race Six (3:35pm) : Nightline Handicap (78) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: This looks a race where if you ran it ten times, you’d get ten different winners. I’m going with the younger brother to Makybe Diva, Rodway (Best Odds: $21.00). I really liked his first up run at Sandown when fifth to Tucanchoo. Due to circumstances, Nolen was forced to go back to the inside and the inside at that track is quicksand, so for him to finish two lengths away while running there was an excellent fresh showing. Fitter, up to 2000m suits, and his lone Flemington came at the end of last prep where he ran second to De Little Engine. Hard to beat IMO.
Big Danger: Former European Martian (Best Odds: $7.00) needed bit of strength that Matty Neilson has to share the victory with Slippery Nina first up at Morphettvile after sitting back in a slowly run race over an unsuitable distance. It was a big performance. Like the fact trainer Tony McEvoy has immediately sent him to Melbourne, a good confident sign IMO. Rawiller rides, drawn well and ran a cracker second up last time in.
Roughie: Soviet Courage (Best Odds: $13.00) has had two runs now in Australia for Chris Waller, and he looks ready to show his best third up. Loved the way he found the line last time out at Sandown when fifth to Clairvaux after covering ground. 2000m suits, as should Flemington.
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Race Seven (4:15pm) : Galilee Series Final 2500m: Form Guide
Back Me: A series named in honour of one of Australias greatest stayers, and this is the field that is produced? Dear me…the obvious one appears to be Manapine (Best Odds: $3.60), who two starts back was five lengths off Wandjina in the Australian Guineas, then got too far back when working strongly against the older horses at Pakenham. 2500m should be perfect, home track…looks the winner on paper, but it’s a very ordinary race. Anything could win this without surprising me.
Big Danger: Oncidium Ruler (Best Odds: $6.50) did a power of work on debut at Ballarat yet fought on really well when second to Show A Star, who has since won in town and ran well in a Mornington Guineas. He then went to a Geelong maiden and savaged the line late to get the win in most impressive fashion. 2500m on a big track here is ideal, he has upside and he is in the right stable.
Roughie: All I Survey (Best Odds: $5.00) had been getting too far back and working home hard late in runs, until last start at Terang where he was ridden a touch closer, and he appreciated it, spanking his rivals by over six lengths. Pat Carey is one of the best when it comes to young stayers, and he has a likely type here.
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Race Eight (4:55pm) : Ross Stevenson Trophy 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really open race with plenty of chances. Going with the former Hong Kong galloper, Silverball (Best Odds: $4.80), who has been very impressive in two Australian runs for Chris Waller, starting off with an unlucky second to Himalaya Dream at Rosehill before going to Warwick Farm on a heavy track and finding plenty when asked to win. Firmer track here suits, still appears to have upside and Ben Melham is riding in very good form at the moment. He’ll do me.
Big Danger: Girl In Flight (Best Odds: $4.00) nearly should have won here first up in the Tressady before going to the Sunline at Moonee Valley and proving no match for Noble Protector, running second to that mare. Terribly drawn, but she should be able to get good cover there, and third up last time in she was excellent without luck. Definite chance.
Roughie: Big watch on the former German galloper Swacadelic (Best Odds: $26.00), who makes his Australian debut for Aaron Purcell. Had really good form when trained over there, including a Derby prelude win, and then later on running well behind the likes of Sea The Moon and Gatewood. I am sure there could have been midweek options for this horse, so the fact he resumes at Saturday level tells me he is ticking over nicely and could run a sneaky race fresh.
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Race Nine (5:30pm) : Darren James Trophy 2500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a hard program, but I think punters can end the afternoon with a good thing, and that appears to be Four Carat (Best Odds: $3.50) who has been tricky to follow and trust, but his runs can’t be ignored. He looked gone at Bendigo last time out, under pressure a long way from home, but he picked up and savaged the line to just miss out on picking up Stellarized. 2500m Flemington tick, fitter tick and James Winks is a regular rider for Waller, so he would have ridden this horse in track work. Looks the winner.
Big Danger: Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $6.00) had been knocking on the door to knock off one of these races, and he did it last time out over 2600m here back a month back when beating home Martinvast in a driving go. Highly doubt he can beat Four Carat, but he is tough, honest and always gives 100%.
Roughie: Sammy The Snake (Best Odds: $9.00) might not be the best horse in this race, but he is a horse you like to back when it comes to staying races-he sits on speed and just toughs it out, like he did last time out at Sandown over 2400m when fending off Malabar Man to win. Big leap in grade here, but he should lead these comfortably, and on his home track with only 52.5kg on his back, he could give some cheek.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Four Carat
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Sea Spray
VALUE: Race Five Number 9 Fab Fevola
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 14
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 12, 15
Leg Four: 10
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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